Ryanair Cuts Passenger Target as Jet Fuel Costs Spark Warning Over Higher Airfares

Ryanair has cut its passenger target for the current financial year as high jet-fuel prices continue to put pressure on airlines, while warning that European passengers could face significantly higher airfares if oil prices remain elevated.

The airline announced the change on Wednesday, 2 September 2026, reducing its traffic target for the financial year ending March 2027 from 216 million passengers to 214 million.

Ryanair said the decision is designed to reduce its exposure to expensive unhedged fuel during the winter months, traditionally the least profitable part of the airline calendar.

Its winter capacity between November and March is now expected to remain broadly flat compared with the previous year.

The airline estimates that limiting its winter flying could reduce seasonal losses by between EUR70 million and EUR100 million.

The move comes as jet-fuel prices remain substantially above the levels at which Ryanair secured most of its own fuel requirements.

Ryanair said current jet fuel is around $140 per barrel.

Around 80% of the airline’s fuel requirements through March 2027 have already been hedged at approximately $67 per barrel, leaving Ryanair in a stronger position than airlines with greater exposure to current market prices.

However, the carrier has warned that persistently high prices could have significant consequences across European aviation.

Ryanair said that if elevated oil prices continue into summer 2027, it expects European short-haul airfares to increase materially to reflect airlines’ higher operating costs.

The airline also warned that some less well-hedged competitors could struggle to maintain their existing capacity or even survive the coming winter.

The warning does not mean Ryanair itself is facing an immediate threat to its operations.

The airline expects to remain profitable during its current financial year, although it now anticipates that profit after tax will be below the record level achieved in the previous year.

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Ryanair is still expecting growth during the summer flying season.

Passenger numbers between April and October are forecast to increase by more than 5%, rising from approximately 138 million last year to around 145 million this year.

The pressure is instead concentrated on the winter schedule, when airlines typically operate with weaker demand and lower profitability.

Ryanair has already demonstrated its willingness to reduce capacity where costs make routes less attractive.

In July, the airline removed five aircraft from its Charleroi base in Belgium and cut around two million seats from its Brussels programme covering winter 2026 and summer 2027.

Higher fuel prices have become one of the most significant financial challenges facing the aviation industry during 2026 following disruption to global energy markets caused by conflict in the Middle East.

According to figures reported by the Press Association using International Air Transport Association data, the average jet-fuel price has risen by more than 70% compared with a year earlier.

The latest development is particularly significant for passengers because the focus of the fuel crisis is increasingly moving from concerns about physical fuel availability towards the price airlines are paying to operate their aircraft.

That distinction matters because even if airlines can obtain sufficient fuel to operate their schedules, persistently higher costs can ultimately influence the number of flights they operate and the prices passengers pay.

Ryanair’s scale also makes its decision significant for the wider European market.

The group operates thousands of flights every day and is a major carrier at numerous UK airports, particularly for short-haul leisure travel to destinations across Spain, Portugal, Italy and other parts of Europe.

For UK passengers planning travel during 2027, there is no suggestion that today’s announcement requires existing bookings to be changed.

However, Ryanair’s warning raises the possibility that the era of exceptionally cheap European fares could come under renewed pressure if oil and jet-fuel prices remain at current levels into next summer.

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