The third runway debate at Heathrow has been rumbling on for so long that it’s almost become background noise. But this week, it moved a step closer to reality — and the numbers involved are genuinely eye-watering.
The UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has published a draft decision that would allow Heathrow Airport Limited to recover efficient early costs incurred during 2025 and 2026, up to a cap of £320 million in 2024 prices. These early costs cover planning and design work needed to develop a credible expansion scheme, including preparation of material to support a future Development Consent Order application.
In plain English: Heathrow has been spending hundreds of millions getting its ducks in a row for the third runway, and the regulator is now minded to let the airport claw that money back. The question is — claw it back from whom?
So who actually pays?
This is where it gets interesting for passengers. When the CAA says Heathrow can “recoup” these costs, what that actually means in practice is that airport charges — the fees added to the cost of your ticket — go up. According to one analysis, this would add approximately 10p per passenger, though the figure is disputed. It may not sound like much, but it sets a precedent for what’s to come as the full expansion bill — estimated at £33 billion for the runway alone, rising to £49 billion when a new terminal and other improvements are included — begins to crystallise.
The CAA’s draft decision also has a smaller footnote worth noting. Heathrow West Ltd — the Arora-backed rival scheme — will be permitted to recover up to £4.3 million in early costs it incurred up to 25 November 2025, when the government announced Heathrow Airport Limited’s proposals as its preferred scheme.
Why the urgency?
Heathrow’s CEO Thomas Woldbye has been making no secret of the pressure the airport is under. Heathrow has two runways compared with Istanbul’s five, and is operating near full capacity. Woldbye has warned that Istanbul is set to surpass Heathrow as Europe’s busiest aviation hub either this year or next — a milestone that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. He has said the third runway should have been built ten years ago, because the country needs it now.
The draft decision marks an important early step rather than a final green light. Following the consultation period, the CAA is expected to publish its final decision in summer 2026, along with any necessary updates to Heathrow Airport Limited’s operating licence. Responses to the current consultation are due by 18 May.
What happens next?
Flights from Heathrow’s new runway are targeted for 2035, with final planning consent required by 2029. That’s still nearly a decade away, and plenty could yet change politically. For now, the CAA’s draft decision is a green light to keep spending — with the tab, at least in part, being picked up somewhere along the line by the airlines, and ultimately by passengers.
If you’re a frequent flyer through Heathrow, this story isn’t going away any time soon.
Thanks for visiting DM News! If you’ve got a question, a story tip, or anything you’d like to share, head over to DriverMatty.com — I love to hear from you. While you’re there, don’t forget to check out my other websites and social media channels.
Sources
UK Civil Aviation Authority — Draft Decision on Heathrow Expansion Early Costs Recovery
Reuters via Cyprus Mail — Heathrow CEO Says Istanbul to Overtake London Hub
Head for Points — Heathrow and Airlines Fall Out Over 3rd Runway Planning Costs
Safer Highways — Heathrow Expansion Clears First Hurdle
The Independent via AOL — Heathrow’s Third Runway Should Have Been Built 10 Years Ago
