Rocket and Feather: Why Pump Prices Aren't Dropping as Fast as Crude Oil

The global oil market is finally seeing a bit of “downward pressure” after weeks of chaos. Crude oil prices, which spiked following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East earlier this year, have begun to dip. Brent Crude, which recently sat well above $120 a barrel, has retreated toward the $90 mark following news of a fragile 14-day ceasefire and a potential truce between the US and Iran.

For drivers across the UK and Ireland, the big question is: When will this show up at the pump?

The “Rocket and Feather” Effect

Unfortunately, history shows that while fuel prices tend to go up like a rocket when oil gets expensive, they fall like a feather when oil gets cheaper. Even with crude prices dropping, several factors are keeping petrol and diesel prices stuck in the clouds.

Refining Margins: While raw crude is cheaper, the cost of turning it into fuel (refining) remains high. Distillate inventories are currently low, which keeps the price of the finished product expensive.
Wholesale Lag: Retailers usually buy their fuel weeks in advance. This means the expensive fuel they bought in March is still what is currently in their underground tanks.
Geopolitical Premium: Market analysts warn that as long as the Middle East remains unstable, a “risk premium” will be baked into the price. Even if the conflict ends tomorrow, it could take 6 to 12 months for supply chains to fully normalise.

Current Prices vs. Reality

In March 2026, we saw some of the highest national average prices on record, with diesel hitting €2.05 in Ireland and petrol reaching 144p per litre in the UK.

While wholesale costs are beginning to ease, motorists should manage their expectations. Experts suggest that while we might see a small reduction of a few pence or cents in the coming weeks, a “rapid crash” in pump prices is unlikely. The “feather” is drifting down, but it’s going to take its time.

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