UK businesses increasingly fear global conflict and shipping disruption will hit supply chains, ONS finds

More UK businesses are warning that international conflict and shipping disruption could affect their supply chains over the next year, according to the latest Office for National Statistics figures.

The ONS released the results of Wave 163 of its Business Insights and Conditions Survey on 3 September, covering responses collected between 17 and 30 August 2026.

Among businesses with 10 or more employees, 28% said they were concerned that international conflict could affect their supply chains over the next 12 months. That was 17 percentage points higher than the comparable figure in September 2025.

A further 21% were concerned about shipping disruption. This was up by 12 percentage points from September 2025.

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The survey also recorded a rise in concern about climate change affecting supply chains. Thirteen per cent of businesses identified it as a concern, compared with 4% a year earlier.

Among businesses that were concerned about supply-chain factors, 53% expected their sourcing costs to rise.

The latest results provide a current measure of how businesses view risks to supply chains, including the potential effect of international conflict, shipping disruption and climate-related factors. The survey figures cover businesses with at least 10 employees and relate to expectations over the coming year.

The ONS released the data as part of its regular Business Insights and Conditions Survey results. The latest movements show that each of the three measured supply-chain concerns was higher than it had been in September 2025, with international conflict recording the largest increase.

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