A powerful El Niño weather event is expected to intensify further over the coming months, with the United Nations weather agency warning that it could significantly increase the risk of floods, drought and extreme heat around the world into 2027.
The World Meteorological Organization issued its latest El Niño update on Thursday, 3 September 2026, saying the climate phenomenon is now firmly established in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Forecasts from WMO’s global prediction centres indicate an exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that El Niño will continue through February 2027.
The organisation expects the event to strengthen into the highest category it uses, described as a “very strong” El Niño, before reaching its peak towards the end of 2026.
Ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are already significantly above normal.
The widely used Niño 3.4 measurement increased from approximately 1.5C above normal during May to July to weekly readings of around 2.2C to 2.6C above average between late July and mid-August.
WMO also reported unusually high temperatures beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean, with some areas more than 8C above average during July and early August.
Those conditions are strengthening confidence among forecasters that the current El Niño will continue intensifying.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.
It typically occurs every two to seven years and can influence atmospheric circulation, rainfall and temperatures thousands of miles away.
However, a very strong El Niño does not automatically mean every country will experience severe weather.
WMO stressed that the effects differ considerably between regions and seasons and can also be influenced by other climate systems in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
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The latest WMO forecast does nevertheless have potential implications for weather patterns closer to home.
The UK Met Office has previously warned that the growing El Niño could increase the likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions across north-west Europe, including the UK, during autumn and early winter.
Earlier Met Office guidance also said El Niño can increase the chance of milder, wetter and windier weather during the first part of the UK winter, before potentially favouring colder and calmer conditions later in the season.
Those are changes in probability rather than specific weather forecasts, and the Met Office has emphasised that Britain’s weather is affected by numerous competing climate drivers.
WMO’s latest global outlook indicates an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas during September to November 2026.
The organisation is now stepping up coordination with national weather agencies and humanitarian organisations as the event strengthens.
Authorities responsible for agriculture, health, energy, water supplies and disaster management are among those being urged to prepare for possible impacts.
The effects of El Niño can also extend beyond the period when Pacific Ocean temperatures reach their peak, meaning its influence on global temperatures and weather could continue well into 2027.
WMO says national meteorological services, including the Met Office in the UK, should remain the authoritative source for local forecasts and weather warnings because the global El Niño outlook cannot predict individual storms, floods or heatwaves in specific locations.
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Sources
Met Office – An Unprecedented El Niño and Its Implications for the Weather Forecast
